Theater-level wargames conducted by the ROK-U. Combined Forces Command shed light on key war scenarios, but their results are not public. What is fairly certain, however, is that unless the KPA won decisive battles early in a conflict, North Korean forces will almost assuredly be overwhelmed by ROK and U. Despite its lightning warfare strategy, the KPA lacks war sustainment capabilities, which would make any advantage it would have early in a conflict short-lived.
Even then, given the high costs that such a war would impose, it is prudent to assess what capabilities North Korea would field in a conflict and how it would likely deploy them.
The North Korean military boasts an enormous ground force that would form the backbone of any invasion. The ROK Armed Forces are concerned that, in a conflict, the KPA would use its ,strong special forces to infiltrate the forward and rear positions of South Korean forces using underground tunnels and various aircraft. Given that the KPA cannot put all its battle tanks on the front lines at once to capitalize on this numerical advantage, their overall combat power is inferior to those in the ROK military.
First-generation battle tanks—such as the T, T, and T—were introduced immediately after the Korean War in Given their age, their actual combat value is likely to be significantly lacking. Moreover, this capability gap is likely to grow when the ROK military acquires additional K2 battle tanks, which are equipped with 1, horsepower maneuverability, reactive armor, an active protection system, an automatic loading device for quick shooting, and targeting accuracy within 2 kilometers even while maneuvering.
Unlike its more numerous ground troops and tanks, North Korea has fewer and less powerful armored combat vehicles than South Korea does. North Korea still uses many aging weapons systems, though it has unveiled some new ones at military parades in recent years. North Korea showed off some new weapons at the September military parade in downtown Pyongyang for the Day of the Foundation of the Republic. The M has a maximum range of 54 kilometers, but it is limited to twelve rounds and is not very accurate.
In addition, the frontline division of the KPA has a millimeter self-propelled artillery, which has a less advanced, automated weapon fire system. The South Korean military wields millimeter K self-propelled artillery and 1, millimeter K-9 self-propelled artillery.
The highly accurate K-9 has a maximum range of 40 kilometers; the forty-eight shells it carries are loaded into and fired from armored vehicles. In past cases, like the December shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, the accuracy and firepower of North Korean artillery was limited. At that time, the KPA shot more than shells using millimeter MRLs, half of which fell into the sea; what is more, 25 percent of the eighty rounds that landed on the island failed to detonate.
The combat effectiveness of these weapons has not been closely evaluated. That said, North Korea has significantly improved its MRL systems compared to previous generations like the M with more limited ranges. Beyond the aforementioned artillery batteries, the North Korean strategic forces have an estimated short-range ballistic missiles and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can reach anywhere on the Korean Peninsula. In the event of war, the KPA would support ground operations by attacking major South Korean targets with an array of ballistic missiles.
The missiles that the country would use for early ground operations are not very precise, although more advanced navigation systems such as the U. In addition to these short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, the KPA has at least long-range artillery aimed at the Seoul metropolitan area and northern parts of South Korea; the North Korean military would presumably target civilian facilities in the densely populated metropolitan area to induce widespread public panic.
The hypersonic missile recently tested can travel at much faster speeds. It's believed that it also has technology for it to be transported and stored fully fuelled, allowing for quicker launch times and making it difficult for adversaries to launch a pre-emptive strike. On 3 September , North Korea conducted by far its largest nuclear test to date, at its Punggye-ri test site.
Estimates of the device's explosive power, or yield, ranged from kilotons. A yield of kilotons would make the test six times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in North Korea claimed this test was its first thermonuclear weapon - the most potent form of nuclear explosion where an atomic detonation is boosted by a secondary fusion process to produce a far bigger blast.
In April , North Korea announced it would suspend further nuclear tests because its capabilities had been "verified". North Korea also promised to dismantle the Punggye-ri site and in May blew up some of the tunnels in the presence of foreign journalists - but with no international experts. As dialogue got underway between Kim Jong-un and President Trump's administration that year, Pyongyang also said that it would destroy all its nuclear material enrichment facilities.
The UN's atomic agency reported in August that on the basis of satellite imagery, it appeared North Korea had restarted the Yongbyon reactor, thought to be its main source of weapons-grade plutonium.
The International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA said in September that the nuclear programme was going "full steam ahead," with work on plutonium separation, uranium enrichment and other activities. North Korea has one of the largest standing armies in the world - with more than one million army personnel and estimated reserves of some , Much of its equipment is old and obsolete, but its conventional forces could still inflict massive damage on South Korea in the event of war.
North Korea also has around tens of thousands of special forces troops which could be expected to infiltrate the South in the event of any conflict. A further threat comes from thousands of North Korean artillery pieces and rocket launchers deployed along the border, putting South Korea, including the capital Seoul, which is a distance of less than 60km, well within range.
In , the South Korean government assessed that North Korea could have between 2, and 5, tons of chemical weapons, potentially one of the largest stockpiles in the world. And there've also been concerns that North Korea could have a biological weapons programme, although very little is known about it and how far advanced it might be.
News World Opinion Business. Share this —. Follow NBC News. However, much of its equipment is old; its soldiers are neither in the best health nor the best trained. In sheer mass, it could do substantial damage, especially in a push on Seoul, which is only thirty or so miles from the border. The air force would not last long, but the navy displayed some dangerous capabilities with the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan. Artillery and Scud missiles could target Seoul even now.
The ROK certainly should be able to defend itself against the North. With more than fifty times the economic strength, a vast technological advantage, and twice the population, South Korea could build a military of the size and capability necessary to deter and, if necessary, defeat another North Korean invasion.
There is no need for Seoul to accept military inferiority of any kind. And then South Korea will be more vulnerable since Washington will put its own interests first in a crisis and pressure Seoul to conform to U. At that point—the Rand Corporation and Asan Institute figure the North could have two hundred nuclear weapons by —Washington would be reluctant to fight even a conventional conflict on behalf of South Korea since any conflict could end with a nuclear exchange and destruction of major American cities.
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